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More than six months into his second term, President Donald Trump's economic promises face a growing test. A string of weak job reports, rising inflation, and heightened political intervention have raised questions about the health of the U.S. economy. 

Trump's sweeping changes to trade, tax, and spending policy have reshaped the U.S. economic landscape. But the early signs point less to a "golden age" and more to a fragile and slowing recovery, one complicated by a radical tariff strategy and shaken further by Trump's decision to fire the head of the federal agency responsible for publishing employment data.

A Slowing Job Market

The latest jobs report, released August 1, showed just 73,000 jobs added in July — far below economists' forecasts of 115,000. More concerning were the revisions to earlier data: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) lowered its estimates for May and June by a combined 258,000 jobs.

Those revisions suggest the economy added an average of just 85,000 jobs per month so far in 2025 — down from 168,000 in 2024, and far below the 400,000 monthly average in 2021–2023 during the post-pandemic rebound.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, and the number of unemployed Americans rose by 221,000 in July. Sectors hit hardest included manufacturing (down 11,000 jobs in July alone), federal government employment (down 12,000), and administrative support roles (down nearly 20,000). Healthcare, by contrast, added more than 55,000 jobs and accounted for three-quarters of July's job growth.

Tariffs Take a Toll

Trump's economic policy has centered on high tariffs, justified as a means to revive domestic manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign imports. Since April, the U.S. has levied sweeping import taxes on nearly all major trade partners, with partial exemptions for allies like the European Union and Japan.

But economists say the burden is falling disproportionately on U.S. businesses and consumers. A Goldman Sachs analysis estimates that just 20% of tariff costs have been absorbed by foreign exporters, while American firms and households pay the rest.

Consumer price data supports this: the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose to 2.6% year-on-year in June, up from 2.2% in April. Steep price hikes were recorded in goods like appliances, furniture, and toys — all heavily reliant on imports.

Corporations have started to pass those costs on. Companies including Walmart, Nike, Ford, Best Buy, Mattel, Temu, and Procter & Gamble have publicly announced price increases linked to tariffs.

Firing the Messenger

In a dramatic move, President Trump responded to the weak jobs report by firing Erika McEntarfer, the BLS Commissioner appointed by Joe Biden in 2023. Trump claimed without evidence that the figures were "rigged" to harm Republicans politically.

"Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "They can't be manipulated for political purposes."

Former BLS leaders, including William Beach (appointed by Trump) and Erica Groshen (appointed by Obama), condemned the firing. In a joint statement, they warned the move would "undermine the credibility of federal economic statistics that are a cornerstone of intelligent economic decision-making."

Economists were quick to note that monthly revisions are standard and reflect late-arriving survey data. On average, BLS receives responses from around 200,000 business locations each month, and revisions tend to increase in size when response rates are low — as has been the case in recent years.

Political Risk Ahead of 2026

With the 2026 midterms approaching, Trump's economic bet is entering risky territory. His second-term agenda has centered on aggressive protectionism, deregulation, and fiscal expansion. But public confidence is slipping: just 38% of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the economy, down from 50% at the end of his first term, according to a July AP-NORC poll.

Republican strategists warn that the full impact of the tariffs may not be felt until 2026 — just as voters head to the polls.

Fed Under Pressure

Trump has publicly pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, blaming Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not doing more to stimulate the economy. While Powell left rates unchanged in July, weak labor data has increased expectations of a cut in September.

Trump has backed two Fed governors — Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman — who dissented in favor of a rate cut last week. But their rationale, citing a cooling job market, did not match Trump's narrative of a booming economy.

A High-Stakes Experiment

Trump has upended decades of U.S. economic policy consensus — discarding multilateral trade deals, pushing through large tax cuts, and reshaping the regulatory state. He now faces the consequences of that transformation.

If growth rebounds, he may claim vindication. But if hiring remains muted and inflation continues to rise, Trump and his allies risk entering 2026 with an economy that feels far from golden — and voters may be less willing to buy the message than they were before.